Going down the wrong path

Time for Pause

Thoughts from two scientists

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

Published research findings are sometimes refuted by subsequent evidence, with ensuing confusion and disappointment. Refutation and controversy is seen across the range of research designs, from clinical trials and traditional epidemiological studies [1–3] to the most modern molecular research [4,5]. There is increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims [6–8]. However, this should not be surprising. It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false. Here I will examine the key factors that influence this problem and some corollaries thereof.

The interview originally appeared in an NHK report, but is no longer available. However, an archived version can be found here

Ｑ：自分が心がけていること、モットーは？
「私自身は、研究に関して、何か知りたいという好奇心がある。もう１つは、簡単に信じない。それから、よくマスコミの人は、ネイチャー、サイエンスに出ているからどうだ、という話をするが、僕はいつもネイチャー、サイエンスに出ているものの９割はうそで、10年たったら、残って１割だと思っています。まず、論文とか、書いてあることを信じない。自分の目で、確信ができるまでやる。それが僕のサイエンスに対する基本的なやり方。つまり、自分の頭で考えて、納得できるまでやると言うことです」

I have taken the liberty to paraphrase Prof. Honjo's answer in English. Any possible errors in interpreting Prof. Honjo's statements are mine.

Q: What do you keep in mind, what is your motto?
A: "Scientific research, to me, involves a curiosity to know about something. Further, I am not a person who believes in anything easily. People in the mass media often revere scientific work appearing in Nature and Science journals, but I am of the opinion that 90% of the research papers published in Nature and Science are incorrect; perhaps, only 10% stands the test of time. Thus, I do not easily accept what is written in the papers or what they conclude. I persevere in investigations of a scientific fact until I am convinced of its veracity. That is how I approach science. In other words, I think with my own head and work until the facts convince me.