Real-time IOD monitoring at IOD Monitor
Questions and comments may be addressed to Saji N. Hameed by email (saji'at-mark'u-aizu.ac.jp) or from my ResearchGate page
A monster of an IOD
The strength of this IOD is enormous. We were anticipating it to exceed the 2006 event, based on the DMI comparisons at http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/blog/2019/09/03/how-strong-is-the-2019-iod/
But, this seems destined to break some records. Look at the wind and OLR anomalies. They are well matched with SST anomalies and will further cool the SST at the eastern Indian Ocean, pushing the IOD to greater strength by the end of October. Perhaps, this IOD is similar to the 1961 event as my good friend Prof. Ashok Karumuri pointed out a few days ago.
The rainfall impacts over Africa have apparently set in, and at this stage seems stronger than in 2006. (scroll down to see rainfall comparison for 2006 and 2019 events; the rain plotted is the daily mean rainfall, not anomalies). Detailed rainfall for some regions can be seen from http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/regions/
The expected impact over Africa is plotted based on IOD composites from previous events (1961,1967,1994 and 2006) at http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/blog/2019/09/20/how-will-iod-impact-equatorial-east-africa/
Among the places facing unusual rains are my home state of Kerala. It was unsually cold and damp when I visited there two weeks ago. There were puddles of rain along the roads that I travelled. I hope people will take precautions not to catch cold or catch mosquito born diseases in places affected by unsually strong and continuous rains.
It is now also time for the IOD to impact sea surface temperatures over the Pacific. We have published an account of how the 2006 IOD impacted SST over the Pacific, and you can pretty well be sure that this IOD will also have similar or stronger impacts (I am guessing this in terms of equatorial atmospheric dynamics and their impacts on the Pacific, and also on the nature of the west Pacific wind anomalies associated with the IOD).